Hard to Get Back to Normal That Soon

A Simple Question: How Likely to Get Back to Normal this Summer at the Current Infection Path without a Vaccine?


Here are some facts:

• First confirmed coronavirus case in China (Nov 17 or Dec 1)
• In 4 months, total confirmed cases: 1,364,711
• World population: 7,776,170,000
• Estimate for peak confirmed cases for this phase: 70,500,000
• (Taking US estimates of potential 100,000 to 200,000 mortality projection's midpoint and applying a 4% mortality rate, the US infections are 150,000 x 25 = 3,000,000 for this phase. With USD population at 4.25% of global population, a direct correlation means around 70,500,000 global infections. Note that this calculation is based on a lot of loose assumptions and I believe the actual figure for this cycle is going to be a lot lower due to under testing, different penetration times, social distancing, Chinese control and India's late spread.)
• Peak / World Total: 0.91%

Here is the only question for this article: If 1 infection in 4 months led to the current situation; how would we able to cease the current preventative measures without a vaccine and only 0.91% global infection?

It seems that either we will face deeper secondary cycles or more likely a protracted period of preventative measures that will have deep impact whilst slowing the spread.

I have no further questions but I would like answers.

April 2020