Coronavirus Active Cases Graphs: Different Paths for Different Countries

Coronavirus Active Cases Graphs: Different Paths for Different Countries

All the data in this article is from - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries – Worldometers Coronavirus website.

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Below you can see the Active Cases in Germany. For benchmarking purposes, I will assume German data is reliable and as they have above 164,000 cases (6^th highest in global confirmed cases), they have a decent sample size.

First of all, Active Cases graphs show for each given day Total Cases up until that day minus Recovered and Death. Therefore a thorough reading of this graph can be done with death figures. However, the intention for this short article is to compare countries to see how they’re progressing in controlling the outbreak.

To that end, notice the top around April 5 for Germany and the following confirmation pattern that the top has been firmly established. Moreover, Germany has been able to bring down Active Cases without succumbing to a sideways movement at the top or anywhere else. This is supported by declining daily new cases and a robust recovery figure. We will see for example in Italy a very different peak formation. Furthermore, let us look at how many days it has taken for the peak to occur. In Germany’s example from a rough reading of the chart it is from March 10 to April 5 – so around 26 days has been sufficient for Germany to achieve control.

Please note that the peak days calculation is roughly from the takeoff point in these graphs to the turning point at the top. The intention is not to be numerically razor sharp but only to have a satisfactorily comparative reading.

As a final observation point, we should make a note that a steeper Active Case curve might mean more intensive testing as well as more widespread infection. Regarding this aspect, Germany’s curve is steep but its decline is steeper.

So the summary for Germany would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Steep

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes, continuous decline.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 26

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With Italy, notice the slow but longer buildup of Active Cases. Consequently the top formation is later that Germany with around 43 days from March 3 take off to April 16 peak. Furthermore, the peak confirmation is not with a steady decline but more sideways than Germany.

So the summary for Italy would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Slow

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes but with a sideways slow decline.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 43

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Spain seems in a bit better than Italy with 38 days to control and a more pronounced peak confirmation. However its peak formation unlike Germany and akin to Italy has taken considerable time.

So the summary for Spain would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Slow

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes but a sideways peak formation which is seeing a pick up recovery recently.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 38

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France looks similar to Italy with slower pickup and sideways peak formation. Late April has possibly seen the peak but it is not yet confirmed.

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Sweden is not enforcing lockdowns and its results differ from most other countries as well. Its pick up is steep and has been going on for 46 days without a peak in sight.

While I have thought that a more relaxed approach should be preferred as lockdown has enormous costs; Swedish example shows that a more populous country could easily be overwhelmed in such a situation. I will make my conclusion before the end by saying that testing and tracing are key to control the infection without resorting to undifferentiated lockdowns. However this can only be achieved if actions are taken very early on by a country prepared for such a situation.

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If we jump continents and look at South Korea, its case build up is steep – more pronounced than Germany. This reinforces the fact that steeper build ups might be related to better testing performance. Its peak confirmation is clear and decline is steady. Finally its peak formation is around 21 days which is remarkable.

So the summary for South Korea would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Very steep

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes with a clear downward path.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 21

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As everyone is looking at Singapore for signs of 2^nd wave dynamics, Active Cases show that Singapore has not experienced a meaningful 1^st wave before. This phase of the infection is their effective 1^st wave given the number of infected has picked up only in April. If other countries are a guide than Singapore will should see its peak sometime during the 2^nd week of May.

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Moving to the Americas, the US is showing a steady steep pickup in number of cases with around 38 days past the takeoff and no peak in sight. However as with Italy’s example, it should not be a surprise to see the US peak around the 2^nd or latest 3^rd week of May.

At this point it should be noted that different countries are in different stages of the infection cycle but most of the Northern Hemisphere has either peaked or close to peaking sometime in May.

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I have looked at Canada to test if the US’s northern neighbor has a different pattern and the answer is no. Canada at the moment closely resembles the US in general terms.

Please note that the European countries who have seen the peak are showing controlled easing of lockdowns where the US is pushing harder at lifting lockdowns. However given the geographical distribution of the US, this does sound much more logical from a bottom up perspective as different regions have been impacted very differently.

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Brazil is a case of its own. This is one unique graph. It has an interim fluctuations like no other country I have looked at and a major pickup after 30 days. Brazil is not showing any signs of peaking at the moment. Given its population dynamics and rather lax initial response, it might take longer than North American counterparts to see the peak in Brazil.

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India has not peaked, its curve is steep and given its population and economic backdrop, a peak in late May seems more likely than earlier.

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Russia is in its 28^th day following the takeoff, its Active Cases are picking up very steeply. Given this curvature, a peak should be expected around mid-May.

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While a lot of negative propaganda was made against Iran early on in March, it has managed to control the outbreak in around 36 days from takeoff and is going through a steady decline.

So the summary for Iran would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Slow at first and then steep

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes with steady decline.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 36

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In Turkey, pickup has been steep and the peak has been seen in 29 days. The decline is in its starting phase but a steady decline has been observed so far.

So the summary for Turkey would be:

·         Peak Established: Yes

·         Active Case Build Up: Steep

·         Peak Confirmed: Yes with steady decline.

·         Days to Peak (approximately): 29

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In conclusion, I feel a lot more positive that the infection is being brought under control. It is possible that once resources are freed up from answering to immediate intensive care concerns, testing of asymptomatic people will take off. If such testing reveals a high proportion of already infected (meaning infected in the last 6 months or earlier if the tests can reveal), then the actual mortality of Covid-19 will turn to be a lot milder than once feared.

As for achieving outbreak control – timing appears critical. Combining an early response with intensive testing encompassing random sampling of the not sick population allows preventing super spread events and a much lower R0 (transmission rate). Active contact tracing and employment of digital tracing methods are highly useful on this front as well.

Future historians might say that we made the problem more complicated than it would have been if preparedness was in place, global coordination was more effective and initial reactions were more robust and focused. If countries have learned from this period, then there is absolutely light at the end of the health problem tunnel. Going forward, it is imperative that the upcoming momentum from infection control should be applied to alleviate other problems which are caused by blanket lockdowns. This upcoming victory is not sufficient to win the battle but it is nonetheless a meaningful start.

May 2, Istanbul